@kellyjay said
Not only do the changes have to be good and functionally useful, but they must also build upon a previously good one!
Even if that was always true, so what?
Actually, its false.
Small changes to develop a heart through time means all the changes required for a heart much stay intact throughout the process.
What do you mean by changes "much stay intact throughout the process"? "intact"? What would a change that "isn't intact" mean? What are you talking about?
If you admit that we are talking about a finite period, this limits the number of changes that can occur in a period.
Right. So what?
How many evolutionary changes do you think were required from a single cell to a human?
Many. So what?
If you factor in the percentages of known harmful mutations compared to good ones
Why? The harmful ones are irrelevant here as they are simply weeded out by evolution. There are plenty of beneficial ones and its the absolute number of beneficial ones that counts and not the harmful-to-beneficial ratio that counts because, just as I just said, the harmful ones are irrelevant here as they are simply weeded out by evolution.
then attempt to figure the odds on specific changes building upon other changes, do we see numbers guaranteeing success
"Success" of doing what, exactly? There is no 'goal' or 'purpose' or 'ultimate end' for evolution to have "success" of 'achieving' and if you think there is supposed to be then you are confused. Evolution isn't 'trying' to achieve some particular end result.
This isn't even taking into account environment changes, or food supply shortages, and so on that could wipe out life.
Environment changes have often wiped out most of life short of all life. What about it? These disastrous events that cause mass extinctions actually STIMULATE evolution by opening up new niches in their aftermath for new species to evolve to fill so, if anything, this HELPS the evolution process. Without such disastrous events we would probably never come to exist.