20 Apr '21 14:41>2 edits
Luckily...you have finally made it on the Joe Shmo giveaway show!
You have in front of you two identical treasure chests ( on the exterior ). I tell you that one chest contains 100 silver coins and the other contains 50 silver and 50 gold coins. You are then blindfolded and asked to pick a chest at random and draw a coin: Its a silver coin - its yours to keep, so you place it in your pocket. To your surprise I then give you a second chance! If you draw a gold coin you keep the entire contents of the chest; if not, you just get the coins you drew ( everyone walks away richer on the Shmo Show! )
What is the ( what I'm naming ) relative likelihood 𝑅 you draw a gold coin if you switch chests vs. stay for the next draw?
𝑅 = 𝑃( Gold | Switch ) / 𝑃( Gold | Stay)
Please hide your response so everyone get a chance to play!
You have in front of you two identical treasure chests ( on the exterior ). I tell you that one chest contains 100 silver coins and the other contains 50 silver and 50 gold coins. You are then blindfolded and asked to pick a chest at random and draw a coin: Its a silver coin - its yours to keep, so you place it in your pocket. To your surprise I then give you a second chance! If you draw a gold coin you keep the entire contents of the chest; if not, you just get the coins you drew ( everyone walks away richer on the Shmo Show! )
What is the ( what I'm naming ) relative likelihood 𝑅 you draw a gold coin if you switch chests vs. stay for the next draw?
𝑅 = 𝑃( Gold | Switch ) / 𝑃( Gold | Stay)
Please hide your response so everyone get a chance to play!