06 Jul 11
Originally posted by quackquackI'm a Yankee fan but I'll take Hernandez over Sabbathia. Really, anyone who wouldn't is being deceived by the W/L stat.
I think it is too early to discuss Sabathia's for the Hall of Fame (despite the fact that Sabathia has a winning record all 11 years of his career with a win total that is 114% greater than Felix Hernandez).
Felix Hernandez is 25 years old. He is 79-60 in his career and including last year has three seasons in his career with more wins than losses. ...[text shortened]... ght end up being great -- he has tremendous talent -- but you do actually have to do it, right?
06 Jul 11
Originally posted by sh76Primarily because of age difference I'd take Hernandez over Sabathia also.
I'm a Yankee fan but I'll take Hernandez over Sabbathia. Really, anyone who wouldn't is being deceived by the W/L stat.
But for Hall of Fame voting the issue is who will have a better career and given that CC Sabathia has 90 more wins right now, I'd bet Sabathia has the more impressive career.
07 Jul 11
Originally posted by quackquackWell, I hope so. But unless Hernandez gets hurt, I wouldn't bet the ranch on it.
Primarily because of age difference I'd take Hernandez over Sabathia also.
But for Hall of Fame voting the issue is who will have a better career and given that CC Sabathia has 90 more wins right now, I'd bet Sabathia has the more impressive career.
07 Jul 11
Originally posted by sh76I think you are severely underestimating the number of guys who suddenly go from good players to bad players. Here is a list of stars who as of last year who simply stink this year.
Well, I hope so. But unless Hernandez gets hurt, I wouldn't bet the ranch on it.
Hanley Ramirez is batting .229 Evan Longoria is batting .235. David Wright is batting .226. Carl Crawford is batting .243 Dan Ugla is batting .178. Joe Mauer is batting .226 Justin Morneau is batting .225 Jayson Werth is batting .221 Ubaldo Jimenez 3-8 with a 4.39 ERA. Zack Grienke, Francisco Liriano are also huge disappointments.
Some guys are hurt; some probably won't ever regain their form. But I think it is dangerous to just assume players will continue close to the rate that they are at now.
07 Jul 11
Originally posted by quackquackGuys have off years... Wright and Mauer have been hurt. Some of those have never been consistently good for a few seasons in a row (Liriano and Jimenez).
I think you are severely underestimating the number of guys who suddenly go from good players to bad players. Here is a list of stars who as of last year who simply stink this year.
Hanley Ramirez is batting .229 Evan Longoria is batting .235. David Wright is batting .226. Carl Crawford is batting .243 Dan Ugla is batting .178. Joe Mauer is batting ...[text shortened]... nk it is dangerous to just assume players will continue close to the rate that they are at now.
How much do you want to bet that Longoria, Ramirez and Morneau are back to being great players before too long?
It's rare that a great player in his prime suddenly becomes ineffective without being hurt. A half a bad year or even a whole bad year does not mean a career is over.
07 Jul 11
Originally posted by sh76After his concussion last year and his neck surgery this year Morneau is far from a sure thing.
Guys have off years... Wright and Mauer have been hurt. Some of those have never been consistently good for a few seasons in a row (Liriano and Jimenez).
How much do you want to bet that Longoria, Ramirez and Morneau are back to being great players before too long?
It's rare that a great player in his prime suddenly becomes ineffective without being hurt. A half a bad year or even a whole bad year does not mean a career is over.
Just look at guys who signed $100 million contracts (someone thought it was close to a sure thing) and see how they fared. Out of 26 $100M contracts here are some that look particularly bad to me: $100M for Carlos Lee, $105M for Kevin Brown, $120M for Giambi, $121M for Hampton, $126M for Werth, $126M for Zito $126M for Wells. Other such as $275M for A-Rod in '08 and $184M for Mauer in 2010 time will tell.
I just believe (especially with fewer PEDs) that the effects of aging are far greater than people think and consitency is rarer than people think.
07 Jul 11
Originally posted by quackquackYou are on the right track, but you are barking up the wrong tree on the PED's.
After his concussion last year and his neck surgery this year Morneau is far from a sure thing.
Just look at guys who signed $100 million contracts (someone thought it was close to a sure thing) and see how they fared. Out of 26 $100M contracts here are some that look particularly bad to me: $100M for Carlos Lee, $105M for Kevin Brown, $120M for Giamb ...[text shortened]... e effects of aging are far greater than people think and consitency is rarer than people think.
The mega contract phenomenon has been in existence since their inception.
I charted the effects for many years while I was a serious Rotissorie baseball player.
The performance of a player was always the greatest in the last year of their contract.
Typically, the worst performance was witnessed in the first year of a mega contract.
The reasons I surmised was due to a relaxed approach due to security.
Then the effect is compounded by fan pressure when the performance was poor.
This caused them to perform at a worse level in most cases.
The second year was typically a bit better than the previous year, but the third year is
where the ship was usually righted in the true star players.
This is one of the major arguments against long term contracts with no negative
performance clauses included (which no agent wants to incorporate.
Of course, they love to add incentive bonuses for better than expected performance.
Another factor is the poor thought processes utilized by many owners (or their reps)
on the players they pursue. They spend far too foolishly because they are idiots.
They are so afraid of not making a splash that they overpay for mediocrity. If the owners ever wised up sufficiently, they would realize there is no need to do what they are.
There are a limited number of spots available and a huge ocean of talent.
If player "X" wants to leave, let him. Grab someone else's disgruntled star as they leave.
But, you don't take on a bunch of one way contracts you can never escape from.
The Dodgers are reeling from this now. The Rangers were a couple years ago.
There are others hurting while paying off contracts for injured or released players.
The Rangers are STILL paying a chunk of A-Rod's contract, and he has been a Yankee for years.
That being said, some of the younger guys will bounce back. As they get older, they don't bounce as well.
07 Jul 11
Originally posted by shortcircuitThe Rangers no longer pay A-Rod and the Dodgers stink because they have not invested in their team.
You are on the right track, but you are barking up the wrong tree on the PED's.
The mega contract phenomenon has been in existence since their inception.
I charted the effects for many years while I was a serious Rotissorie baseball player.
The performance of a player was always the greatest in the last year of their contract.
Typically, the worst ...[text shortened]... some of the younger guys will bounce back. As they get older, they don't bounce as well.
PEDs are huge. In the last decade we had a record amount of players performing well at ages when players normally get worse. I expect that if the game is cleaned up, players will age worse.
But for the issue at hand, I think we agree -- it is real dangerous to see a guy who is having success (such as sabathia and felix hernandez) and expect that they will continue at the same rate in the future.
07 Jul 11
Originally posted by quackquackI stand corrected on the A-Rod contract. He opted out of the old deal which unhooked the Rangers.
The Rangers no longer pay A-Rod and the Dodgers stink because they have not invested in their team.
PEDs are huge. In the last decade we had a record amount of players performing well at ages when players normally get worse. I expect that if the game is cleaned up, players will age worse.
But for the issue at hand, I think we agree -- it is real ...[text shortened]... sabathia and felix hernandez) and expect that they will continue at the same rate in the future.
The Dodgers still owe 21 million to Manny Ramirez, 11 million to Andruw Jones,
and 4.4 million to Hiroki Kuroda. All are the aftermath of long term deals that went south.
This doesn't address the large contracts that they have with their current players.
07 Jul 11
Originally posted by shortcircuitWhen the Dodgers acquired Manny Ramirez he was amazing. So maybe they are overpaying at the tail end. They had Andruw Jones (and the benefits of his highly suspicious PED career) for his whole productive career -- to do that you also end up paying more at the end of his contract I'd argue the problem with the Dodgers is they stopped acquiring new players and now have a very thin team.
I stand corrected on the A-Rod contract. He opted out of the old deal which unhooked the Rangers.
The Dodgers still owe 21 million to Manny Ramirez, 11 million to Andruw Jones,
and 4.4 million to Hiroki Kuroda. All are the aftermath of long term deals that went south.
This doesn't address the large contracts that they have with their current players.
07 Jul 11
Originally posted by quackquackNo, the problems with the mega deals now is that the teams foolishly mortgage their
When the Dodgers acquired Manny Ramirez he was amazing. So maybe they are overpaying at the tail end. They had Andruw Jones (and the benefits of his highly suspicious PED career) for his whole productive career -- to do that you also end up paying more at the end of his contract I'd argue the problem with the Dodgers is they stopped acquiring new players and now have a very thin team.
future by deferring a good sized chunk of the contract, with interest, in order to
cover their operating costs during the current times more easily.
The thought here was that they would have time to accrue profits that would pay
for the expenses later, but in fact, they become a death spiral.
Also, when they acquired Manny, the only amazing thing was that they agreed to take
on that nut case. They stepped into it. I mean, the Red Sox couldn't unload him fast
enough. What should that tell you?
The Dodgers have always had an excellent farm system, and for many years, the bulk of their players came up through their farm.
I recall there was a time when I believe they produced four consecutive Rookie of
the Year winners. This was in the late 70's and early 80's. Once the O'Malleys were
no longer in the leadership, the slow decline began.
07 Jul 11
1 edit
Originally posted by shortcircuitThe three best teams in baseball Yankees, Redsox and Phillies seem to have done very nicely by supplementing their home grown players with high priced free agents. I think you need to spend (and not worry that you might overpay once in a while) if you want to be good in the major leagues.
No, the problems with the mega deals now is that the teams foolishly mortgage their
future by deferring a good sized chunk of the contract, with interest, in order to
cover their operating costs during the current times more easily.
The thought here was that they would have time to accrue profits that would pay
for the expenses later, but in fact, d early 80's. Once the O'Malleys were
no longer in the leadership, the slow decline began.
11 Jul 11
2 edits
All-Star break is upon us; impressions?
My Reds have been a disappointment; 2 games under .500. Still they are only 4 games back and after the break have a 3 game series at home with the Cards (tied for 1st in the NL Central) and 3 games at surprising Pittsburgh (who might finish above .500 for the first time in 19 years). The season is salvageable, but the pitching has to get better; it's a dismal 14th in ERA and 15th in both HRs and walks allowed among the 16 NL teams. This week was a particularly awful; Cordero our closer who had been having a fine season blew three saves in 5 days including two awful losses to the 1st place Brewers. We're going to have to do better than that; perhaps it's time to give the rejuvenated Arlodis Chapman (of the 105 mph fastball) the ball in the 9th.
16 Jul 11
Originally posted by no1marauderDid you see what Pujols did with Chapman's fastball late in the game.
All-Star break is upon us; impressions?
My Reds have been a disappointment; 2 games under .500. Still they are only 4 games back and after the break have a 3 game series at home with the Cards (tied for 1st in the NL Central) and 3 games at surprising Pittsburgh (who might finish above .500 for the first time in 19 years). The season is s ...[text shortened]... s time to give the rejuvenated Arlodis Chapman (of the 105 mph fastball) the ball in the 9th.
Phillips saved them with the walk-off homer.
Pirates in first place for the first time in how many years?
Clint Hurdle has to be in a horse race with Terry Collins for M-O-T-Y honors.
With Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, St.Louis and Cincy all playing well, that may be the best
division race in baseball, surpassing the AL East.
16 Jul 11
Originally posted by shortcircuitLOL
Did you see what Pujols did with Chapman's fastball late in the game.
Phillips saved them with the walk-off homer.
Pirates in first place for the first time in how many years?
Clint Hurdle has to be in a horse race with Terry Collins for M-O-T-Y honors.
With Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, St.Louis and Cincy all playing well, that may be the best
division race in baseball, surpassing the AL East.