04 Jul 11
Originally posted by quackquackI'd agree, but I'm asking sh76 based on the criteria given in his posts.
It seems that if we use the same standards we used in the past Hudson would not even be close.
Hudson's a three time all star who once lead the league in wins (his only season with over 17 wins) and has never lead the league in ERA. His only year in the top 3 in Cy Young voting he had a 4.14 ERA. I'd suggest his totals are way short. His best year is far from a year for the ages.
04 Jul 11
Originally posted by sh76Sabathia doesn't fare much better in those criteria; he also has never led any league in ERA. He has led the AL twice in wins (once he got to the Yankees), has been in the top 3 in the Cy Young voting only twice and has been on 4 All Star teams. By those outside criteria he's slightly better than Hudson, by wins and ERA+ Hudson is slightly better than him. How one can be declared a "lock HOFer" without admitting the other should also be in the HOF is a bit of a puzzle.
Those other factors that quackquack mentioned (and others) also count of course.
04 Jul 11
Originally posted by no1marauderSabathia certain isn't a lock to me but his a much better candidate than Hudson. Sabathia actually won a Cy Young award and has led the league in wins the past two years and is tied for first again this year. Sabathia is a work horse who has reached double digit wins every year of his career, pitched in good hitting AL parks except for the (half year he was dominant in Milwaukee).
Sabathia doesn't fare much better in those criteria; he also has never led any league in ERA. He has led the AL twice in wins (once he got to the Yankees), has been in the top 3 in the Cy Young voting only twice and has been on 4 All Star teams. By those outside criteria he's slightly better than Hudson, by wins and ERA+ Hudson is slightly better than hi ...[text shortened]... d a "lock HOFer" without admitting the other should also be in the HOF is a bit of a puzzle.
04 Jul 11
Originally posted by no1marauderI explained this already... However, I shall do so again.
Sabathia doesn't fare much better in those criteria; he also has never led any league in ERA. He has led the AL twice in wins (once he got to the Yankees), has been in the top 3 in the Cy Young voting only twice and has been on 4 All Star teams. By those outside criteria he's slightly better than Hudson, by wins and ERA+ Hudson is slightly better than hi ...[text shortened]... d a "lock HOFer" without admitting the other should also be in the HOF is a bit of a puzzle.
Hudson is 35 years old and has a history of injury. Sabbathia is 30 with a history of durability. I said that Sabbathia is a lock "unless he gets hurt."
If Hudson were 30 years old and had a history of durability, I'd say the same thing about him.
Conversely, if Sabbathia were 35 and had a history of injury, I certainly wouldn't say he's a lock.
04 Jul 11
1 edit
Originally posted by sh76Hudson's "history of injury" is pretty much one and a half years a few years ago. He won 17 games in 2010 and hasn't missed a start either this or last year. It's curious you state that ERA+ is the "best stat" for pitchers but then ignore it when it doesn't support your argument.
I explained this already... However, I shall do so again.
Hudson is 35 years old and has a history of injury. Sabbathia is 30 with a history of durability. I said that Sabbathia is a lock "unless he gets hurt."
If Hudson were 30 years old and had a history of durability, I'd say the same thing about him.
Conversely, if Sabbathia were 35 and had a history of injury, I certainly wouldn't say he's a lock.
Sabbathia could also not pitch as well over the next five years or is that an impossibility in your mind? It's not beyond the realm of possibility that Hudson will wind up with more wins than CC.
EDIT: sh76: As for ERA+, I can't think of a single stat that's better.
Except when it leads to results contrary to your argument apparently.
04 Jul 11
1 edit
Originally posted by no1marauder<sigh>
Hudson's "history of injury" is pretty much one and a half years a few years ago. He won 17 games in 2010 and hasn't missed a start either this or last year. It's curious you state that ERA+ is the "best stat" for pitchers but then ignore it when it doesn't support your argument.
Sabbathia could also not pitch as well over the next five ye r.
Except when it leads to results contrary to your argument apparently.
I'm not ignoring ERA+ in Hudson vs. Sabbathia. I'm agreeing that Hudson is similar to Sabbathia at this point, but asserting that because of his age and history, he's in much, much worse shape to make the HOF. How many times do I have to say that, anyway?
Hudson was a great pitcher until 2003 and has basically been a good pitcher ever since. In 2010 he was excellent, but he's back to being merely good this year. The odds that he'll have another 4 or 5 excellent seasons, which is what it will take to make the HOF, are long. The odds that Sabbathia will have another 4 or 5 excellent seasons is excellent.
Obviously, anything is possible. But are you seriously asserting that today going forward, Hudson has as good or almost as good a chance as Sabbathia at the HOF???
04 Jul 11
Originally posted by sh76I don't think either has any serious chance of making the HOF.
<sigh>
I'm not ignoring ERA+ in Hudson vs. Sabbathia. I'm agreeing that Hudson is similar to Sabbathia at this point, but asserting that because of his age and history, he's in much, much worse shape to make the HOF. How many times do I have to say that, anyway?
Hudson was a great pitcher until 2003 and has basically been a good pitcher ever since. In 201 ...[text shortened]... day going forward, Hudson has as good or almost as good a chance as Sabbathia at the HOF???
04 Jul 11
Originally posted by no1marauderSabbathia is 30 years old and has never been seriously hurt. He goes late into games routinely, has sizzling fastball and excellent control. He has four top 5 CY finishes and is headed towards another this year. He plays for the New York Yankees.
I don't think either has any serious chance of making the HOF.
Why would you NOT think that he has an excellent chance to win at least another 100 games and a decent shot at 300 for his career?
(unless you think he'll break down because he's fat, of course...)
04 Jul 11
BTW, the reason CC doesn't have as many AS appearances is because he's a historically great second half pitcher. His August record (I forget it offhand) is insane. Also, this year, for example, he was only not selected because he's pitching next Sunday and so he won't pitch in the game anyway. Obviously, at 11-4 3.05, 106:32 K:BB, he is deserving of an all star spot.
04 Jul 11
Originally posted by sh76They cannot elect Sabbathia into the HOF. If they did, he would want to have his hat on crooked in the bust.
BTW, the reason CC doesn't have as many AS appearances is because he's a historically great second half pitcher. His August record (I forget it offhand) is insane. Also, this year, for example, he was only not selected because he's pitching next Sunday and so he won't pitch in the game anyway. Obviously, at 11-4 3.05, 106:32 K:BB, he is deserving of an all star spot.
They cannot tolerate that kind of blasphemy.
Remember when they clamped down on David Wells, while pitching for the Yankees,
because he was wearing a cap that had been worn by Babe Ruth...another Yankee great.
05 Jul 11
1 edit
Originally posted by sh76He'll be 31 in a couple of weeks. Rumor is he'll opt out of his Yankee contract after this year (apparently $23 mil a year isn't enough for him).
Sabbathia is 30 years old and has never been seriously hurt. He goes late into games routinely, has sizzling fastball and excellent control. He has four top 5 CY finishes and is headed towards another this year. He plays for the New York Yankees.
Why would you NOT think that he has an excellent chance to win at least another 100 games and a decent shot at 300 for his career?
(unless you think he'll break down because he's fat, of course...)
The vast majority of power pitchers like CC see significant decreases in effectiveness after they hit 30. Here's a list of the 10 most similar pitchers stat wise to Sabathia through age 29 according to baseballreference.com:
1.Dwight Gooden (950)
2.Dave McNally (933)
3.Lefty Gomez (913) *
4.Vida Blue (912)
5.Greg Maddux (904)
6.Milt Pappas (903)
7.Ken Holtzman (897)
8.Sandy Koufax (896) *
9.Nig Cuppy (891)
10.Roger Clemens (886
Only Gomez and Koufax (the latter a special case for reasons already given) of that list made it to the HOF. Maddux will but he pitches nothing like CC. Clemens should, but his record in the his late 30s and even early 40s was extraordinary (many would say that they were extraordinary because he cheated).
Statistically the odds are against him.
05 Jul 11
Originally posted by no1marauderAt age 30, Gooden was on the fast track to being a HOFer. His career fell apart, likely at least in part because of drug problems. If you want to say that Sabbathia's chances at age 30 (okay, let's say 31) are the same as Gooden's at that age, I'd agree. Gooden's chances were excellent at that time and that he fell apart was the flukey thing. There is no indication that Sabbathia is going to fall apart in the same fashion.
He'll be 31 in a couple of weeks. Rumor is he'll opt out of his Yankee contract after this year (apparently $23 mil a year isn't enough for him).
The vast majority of power pitchers like CC see significant decreases in effectiveness after they hit 30. Here's a list of the 10 most similar pitchers stat wise to Sabathia through age 29 accor ...[text shortened]... raordinary because he cheated).
Statistically the odds are against him.
05 Jul 11
Originally posted by sh76If Sabbathia still played in Cleveland, instead of NY, would you be championing his case as hard? The guy is a younger David Wells. He will blow up.
At age 30, Gooden was on the fast track to being a HOFer. His career fell apart, likely at least in part because of drug problems. If you want to say that Sabbathia's chances at age 30 (okay, let's say 31) are the same as Gooden's at that age, I'd agree. Gooden's chances were excellent at that time and that he fell apart was the flukey thing. There is no indication that Sabbathia is going to fall apart in the same fashion.
05 Jul 11
Originally posted by shortcircuitOh my, what a bad example. If you searched through baseball history, you could not possibly have come up with a worse example than David Wells for the proposition that Sabbathia will "blow up."
If Sabbathia still played in Cleveland, instead of NY, would you be championing his case as hard? The guy is a younger David Wells. He will blow up.
Through age 30, Wells had all of 58 wins and no all star appearances. His BEST seasons, by far, came in his 30s and he was an effective pitcher well into his 40s. If Sabbathia performs comparably to Wells after age 30, he'll finish with well over 300 wins.