Ukraine Refuses Any Ceasefire

@athousandyoung said
Just want to point out the IRA fought for over half a century without constant influx of weapons from foreign governments and never militarily drove the British out of Ireland.

That was terrorism to fight a militarily superior occupier. That was not a conventional war. You are being silly.

@metal-brain said
That was terrorism to fight a militarily superior occupier. That was not a conventional war. You are being silly.

I have to mention it. This is no1marauder I'm talking to.

@athousandyoung said
I have to mention it. This is no1marauder I'm talking to.

Ukraine cannot win.

@metal-brain said
Ukraine cannot win.

Depends on how you define "win".

@athousandyoung said
Depends on how you define "win".

How do you define win?

@metal-brain said
How do you define win?

I avoid the term because it's poorly defined but if I had to define "win" in this case:

20 years from now Ukraine is in NATO, the EU and controls Donbas, Crimea etc. This is a Ukraine win.

@athousandyoung said
I avoid the term because it's poorly defined but if I had to define "win" in this case:

20 years from now Ukraine is in NATO, the EU and controls Donbas, Crimea etc. This is a Ukraine win.

That will never happen.

@metal-brain said
That will never happen.

Don't forget in 20 years Vlad Putin will probably be long dead.

@no1marauder said
Do you think the Ukraine is willing to engage in a decade or more long struggle to recover every inch of its territory including the Donbass and the Crimea?

Do you think they are likely to be successful in that enterprise even if they are?

And do you think the West will be willing to fund it for an indefinite period of time?

Yes
Yes
Yes
But I’d rather the Ukrainians accepted a return to pre invasion map and a complete decoupling from the Crimea and breakaway republics who would have no political, economic or military powers of veto over the remainder of Ukraine.
But in order to do this Ukraine would need NATO membership in order to guarantee the future security of the remnant state.

@metal-brain said
Ukraine cannot win.

Neither can Russia their army is not up to the task, that was obvious after the first couple of weeks.

@no1marauder said
Any other theories?

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/21/1094008336/biden-announces-another-800-million-to-support-ukraine-military

Biden pledged "another" 800 million in military aid to Ukraine in addition to aiding with tactical support, such as giving Ukraine the location of a Russian warship that sank after reportedly being hit by Ukrainian missiles.

All that in addition to other western nations like Germany supporting Ukraine in similar ways. including giving them 1,000 anti-tank weapons and anti-aircraft defense weapons.

You say Ukraine's position is "unrealistic"; this is not a purely one-on-one fight anymore, and hasn't been for quite a while.

@athousandyoung said
It might take a decade or two for the Russians to get tired of the constant drain on their resources and leave in the same sort of way both the USSR and USA left Afghanistan to the Taliban. Possibly the Russian government will collapse before then like it did in the middle of WW1 (edit or like it did in the 90's)

What will be left of the Ukraine in a "decade or two" of war at this present level?

@no1marauder said
What will be left of the Ukraine in a "decade or two" of war at this present level?

The land isn’t going anywhere.

@athousandyoung said
As far as militarily driving the Russians out of the Black Sea...well Ukraine might actually pull that off. They've already sunk several Russian ships including their flagship cruiser Moskva. A cruiser is not a small ship.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-flagship-black-sea-fleet-badly-damaged-by-blast-2022-04-14/

If Russia loses its Black Sea f ...[text shortened]... the war?

[youtube New Jersey museum guy analyzes Moskva sinking 18 minutes]AWwZVwCrgsQ[/youtube]

That's not how the UN sees it:

"Moscow's comments followed an appeal by the United Nations food chief to Vladimir Putin that millions would die around the world because of the Russian blockade."

"Earlier, United Nations food chief David Beasley appealed directly to the Russian president.

"If you have any heart at all for the rest of the world, regardless of how you feel about Ukraine, you need to open up those ports," he said.

The United Nations is calling on Russia to ensure food supplies get to where they are most needed.

“There is no effective solution to the food crisis without reintegrating Ukraine’s food production, as well as the food and fertilizer produced by Russia and Belarus, into world markets -- despite the war,” said António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations.

“Russia must permit the safe and secure export of grain stored in Ukrainian ports.

https://www.euronews.com/2022/05/19/russia-says-easing-ukraine-black-sea-ports-blockade-dependent-on-sanctions-review

This is another byproduct of continuation of the war.

@athousandyoung said
I avoid the term because it's poorly defined but if I had to define "win" in this case:

20 years from now Ukraine is in NATO, the EU and controls Donbas, Crimea etc. This is a Ukraine win.

That is unlikely, but it would be more likely IF the Ukraine negotiated a reasonable settlement now.