Ukraine Refuses Any Ceasefire

"Ukraine has ruled out agreeing to a ceasefire with Russia - and said it will not accept any deal with Moscow that involves giving up territory.

In his nightly address to his people, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed that although the fighting would be bloody, the end to the war in Ukraine would come only through diplomacy and that the Russian occupation of its territory would be temporary.

And his adviser Mykhailo Podolyak flatly ruled out agreeing to a ceasefire, as he said making concessions would backfire on Ukraine because Russia would only hit back harder after any break in fighting.

He added that Kyiv would not accept any deal with Moscow that involved ceding any territory."

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-news-live-turkey-will-not-approve-finland-and-swedens-nato-bids-ukrainian-fighters-leave-azovstal-steel-plant-in-buses-10-civilians-killed-by-russian-shelling-in-eastern-city-12541713

Obviously these positions are completely unrealistic given the reality of the present military situation and Russia's overwhelming advantages. In March, the parties seemed close to an agreement (https://www.ft.com/content/7f14efe8-2f4c-47a2-aa6b-9a755a39b626) but the Ukraine has completely hardened its bargaining terms. I suspect it is because their leaders have deluded themselves that military victory is possible with massive Western aid and, if that fails, the West will eventually commit to active combat operations against Russia to save them.

Any other theories?

This article in the Atlantic should be required reading for the Kev's and Shallows of the world: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/newsworld/ukraine-s-way-out/ar-AAXpsEn

Excerpts:

" Indeed, strategic pragmatism warrants a frank conversation between NATO and Ukraine about curbing Kyiv’s ambitions and settling for an outcome that falls short of “victory.”

Several considerations call for such restraint. First, the longer the war continues, the greater the death, destruction, and dislocation it will reap. Russia’s invasion has already taken tens of thousands of lives, forced some 12 million Ukrainians to flee their homes (about 6 million have left the country), and destroyed some $60 billion of Ukraine’s infrastructure. Sanctions against Russia and the war’s disruption to supply chains are fueling rising prices in many countries and could spawn a global food shortage.

Second is the risk of escalation. If Russian forces fare well in the east and the south, the Kremlin could eventually decide to enlarge its own war aims and seek to swallow more of Ukraine. Alternatively, if Russian forces falter in the coming weeks and Vladimir Putin faces a further defeat, he could well look to use weapons of mass destruction, or to trigger a wider conflict to change the course of the war. Accidental escalation is also a real risk, with Russia already carrying out strikes near NATO territory and Russian and NATO forces operating in close proximity.

Third, even though the West has demonstrated impressive unity in supporting Ukraine and standing up to Russian aggression, the West’s solidarity may wane over time. Inflation is spiking on both sides of the Atlantic, fueled in part by the knock-on effects of the war. Rising prices are weighing down President Joe Biden’s popularity—despite his strong handling of the war—and his earlier focus on improving the lot of working Americans has effectively been sidelined. Bipartisan cooperation on standing up to Putin could erode."

"Critics charge that any outcome short of total defeat would embolden Putin. Allowing him to claim victory by retaining control of even a small slice of Ukraine, the arguments run, would only encourage his next land grab. So, too, might China interpret any outcome shy of a rout of Russia as encouragement for testing the West’s readiness to defend Taiwan.

But Putin will remain a troublemaker no matter how this war ends. And he has already been dealt a setback more than sufficient to drive home the costs of further adventurism. The Russian military is reeling as the country’s economy shrinks. Ukrainians have soundly rejected any future that entails subjugation to Moscow’s sphere of influence."

"Putin’s errant invasion of Ukraine has produced no winners, but one clear loser: Russia. Even as the West continues to provide Ukraine the means to defend itself, it’s time for the Atlantic democracies to turn their focus to bringing the war to an end."

How?

" NATO must engage in a forthright dialogue with the Ukrainian government about its goals and how best to bring the bloodshed to a close sooner rather than later."

@no1marauder said
"Ukraine has ruled out agreeing to a ceasefire with Russia - and said it will not accept any deal with Moscow that involves giving up territory.

In his nightly address to his people, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed that although the fighting would be bloody, the end to the war in Ukraine would come only through diplomacy and that the Russian occupation of its terri ...[text shortened]... ll eventually commit to active combat operations against Russia to save them.

Any other theories?

How is this different from Taliban vs USSR? Did Afghanistan surrender territory?

@athousandyoung said
How is this different from Taliban vs USSR? Did Afghanistan surrender territory?

Do you think the Ukraine is willing to engage in a decade or more long struggle to recover every inch of its territory including the Donbass and the Crimea?

Do you think they are likely to be successful in that enterprise even if they are?

And do you think the West will be willing to fund it for an indefinite period of time?

@no1marauder said
Do you think the Ukraine is willing to engage in a decade or more long struggle to recover every inch of its territory including the Donbass and the Crimea?

Do you think they are likely to be successful in that enterprise even if they are?

And do you think the West will be willing to fund it for an indefinite period of time?

I didn't think they were willing to fight at all. Nobody did. Nobody expected the profound incompetence being demonstrated by the Russian military either.

Russia's looking more and more like a fake bear that put on a good show but whose capability is seriously in question.

@athousandyoung said
I didn't think they were willing to fight at all. Nobody did. Nobody expected the profound incompetence being demonstrated by the Russian military either.

Russia's looking more and more like a fake bear that put on a good show but whose capability is seriously in question.

Kinda like the USA in the 20 year middle east joke war?

Please don't make fun of Russia. It's only been 2 months. They have 19 more years to go before yall can make fun.

@capacrapa said
Kinda like the USA in the 20 year middle east joke war?

Please don't make fun of Russia. It's only been 2 months. They have 19 more years to go before yall can make fun.

The USA (with allied support of course) squashed Saddam's legendary fleet of tanks and occupied Baghdad in three weeks!

@no1marauder says - Any other theories?
----------

Nope. I think your theory looks about right

@athousandyoung said
I didn't think they were willing to fight at all. Nobody did. Nobody expected the profound incompetence being demonstrated by the Russian military either.

Russia's looking more and more like a fake bear that put on a good show but whose capability is seriously in question.

Perhaps you are unaware that a large chunk of Eastern and Southern Ukraine is already in Russian hands. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

When do you expect the Ukrainian military to drive the Russians out of these areas?

@no1marauder said
Perhaps you are unaware that a large chunk of Eastern and Southern Ukraine is already in Russian hands. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

When do you expect the Ukrainian military to drive the Russians out of these areas?

It might take a decade or two for the Russians to get tired of the constant drain on their resources and leave in the same sort of way both the USSR and USA left Afghanistan to the Taliban. Possibly the Russian government will collapse before then like it did in the middle of WW1 (edit or like it did in the 90's)

Just want to point out the IRA fought for over half a century without constant influx of weapons from foreign governments and never militarily drove the British out of Ireland.

As far as militarily driving the Russians out of the Black Sea...well Ukraine might actually pull that off. They've already sunk several Russian ships including their flagship cruiser Moskva. A cruiser is not a small ship.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-flagship-black-sea-fleet-badly-damaged-by-blast-2022-04-14/

If Russia loses its Black Sea fleet holding Crimea won't be of much use to them. Maybe they could, I don't know, negotiate with Ukraine for a permanent naval base in Crimea like they had before the war?

YouTube : New Jersey museum guy analyze...

@no1marauder said
"Ukraine has ruled out agreeing to a ceasefire with Russia - and said it will not accept any deal with Moscow that involves giving up territory.

In his nightly address to his people, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed that although the fighting would be bloody, the end to the war in Ukraine would come only through diplomacy and that the Russian occupation of its terri ...[text shortened]... ll eventually commit to active combat operations against Russia to save them.

Any other theories?

You are right, Russia will not give up the only advantage they have gained since the start of the war. What would Russia get in return for giving up the territory they have gained? Promises? I doubt the Russian people would like that either. Russians lost their lives in the war so if Putin made a foolish concession like that he would have to explain why he sacrificed Russian lives only to give back territory he has right now.

Zelenskyy is a puppet ruler who is doing what he is told. As long as Ukrainians are willing to fight and die for a lost cause the USA is willing to send them lots of weapons so Americans are not dying. This is what HRC called a "bleed them dry" strategy. It will probably bleed Ukraine dry first though. All to weaken Russia.

I think this will also be used as a scapegoat for the coming economic downturn though. There is another housing bubble getting ready to pop again. After 2008 all they did was reinflate the housing bubble to kick the can down the road. They used the pandemic as an excuse to pump more liquidity into the economy again. Now it will be worse than in 2008. The bigger the bubble, the bigger the pop.

Our economy is a horrible mess and they don't want to admit they caused it. Like everything else, they will blame it on Russia. They have to scapegoat something to avoid being blamed. After all, it is their fault. Here is an article that is over 2 years old and the income/price ratio is even worse now than when it was wrote.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/sep/19/if-incomes-dont-keep-up-with-property-prices-were-in-danger-of-another-housing-bubble

@athousandyoung said
I didn't think they were willing to fight at all. Nobody did. Nobody expected the profound incompetence being demonstrated by the Russian military either.

Russia's looking more and more like a fake bear that put on a good show but whose capability is seriously in question.

Is that why Ukraine bombed their own bridge to stop the Russian advance?
Ukraine is losing the war. It is slowly losing the war, but losing nonetheless.

Our corporate news media didn't even admit to the AZOV surrender at that steel plant for a while. You are being fed propaganda to give you hope Ukraine can win. They cannot win and Putin will not back down. He has too much invested in this war.