@proper-knob said
@KellyJay
Let me show you the error of your ways. It might help, but it probably won't. I don't hold out much hope but one can only try.
Let's take that coin toss, 150 heads in a row. Instead of trying to get all 150 in a row in one go, let's get 15. Once we have those 15 we'll move onto the next 15 and then the next 15 and so on and so on until we have our 150 hea ...[text shortened]... huge number is redundant and as i have quite clearly demonstrated the odds do change, dramatically.
Yes, except when it comes to life if you break the streak for life it stops and dead ends right then and there. It takes a single failure to stop the process, if things are not put together properly it doesn't get off the ground. You don't get to get pass go and move on.
Getting it right if you had watched the video were several things occurring together beside the amino acids being put into the right order, the odds for each were 1/20, they were not the only factors involved. Only Left handed amino are acceptable, so its 1/20 times 150, and 1/2 for right handed or left handed amino acids also to the 150, then there were other factors brought out, and all of this was just for a single protein.
If the coin flips gets a tails its taken off the board dying off, how many coins do you need to get just 150 heads in row, the math should tell you? Massively huge numbers go to direct the probability of success, if it cannot happen or can is there. I'd also remind you that time is a factor but not the most important one, not even close. The success or failure of coin flips and endless time can only occur while you have coins. If a tail kills off a coin from being able to go 150 times in a row or it dies, once dead it isn't flipped again its gone. How many coins you start with will all go away once they no longer land on heads, how many are required for success?
This would be true on a planet, what is required for life would only have a chance if all ingredients were there to be put together at the same place at the same time for even an attempt to be made. Unsuccessful attempts destroy required ingredients, so not only would success depend on many attempts, but huge amounts of windows of opportunities, where everything was where it was required to be in an environment setup for success.
The odds are huge, the chance for success small, yet many believe without really thinking that through, its nothing but wishful thinking it could have occurred through random undirected processes.