1. Subscribervenda
    Dave
    S.Yorks.England
    Joined
    18 Apr '10
    Moves
    83073
    08 Dec '23 14:191 edit
    I go for a pre xmas drink with a friend on a Friday or Saturday night in December.
    We have done this every year since 2012.
    What are the chances on us repeating the evening on the same day and date this year?
    I realise we have already missed 2 dates
  2. Standard memberBOBDANIEL09
    Future GM
    Joined
    21 Nov '23
    Moves
    2406
    09 Dec '23 00:29
    @venda
    I am pretty sure it is zero
  3. SubscriberPonderable
    chemist
    Linkenheim
    Joined
    22 Apr '05
    Moves
    651094
    11 Dec '23 13:05
    @venda said
    I go for a pre xmas drink with a friend on a Friday or Saturday night in December.
    We have done this every year since 2012.
    What are the chances on us repeating the evening on the same day and date this year?
    I realise we have already missed 2 dates
    So we have 24 possible dates (1st to 24th).

    You already have (maximum of) 9 dates were you performed your ritual.

    So you have a probability of 9/24 to hit on the same date (or less if you hit on the same date before).

    The date is on the same weekday every seven years (if one leap year is in between) or after six years (if there have been two). So we had one leap year to hit the same weekday in 2016. And two more to hit 2011. So we have to assume that you performed the ritual 2016, otherwise probability is zero.

    So now we have one single date that you can hit to find the same date with the same weekday. Since you give two weekdays, probability is 1/8.
  4. Subscribervenda
    Dave
    S.Yorks.England
    Joined
    18 Apr '10
    Moves
    83073
    12 Dec '23 11:33
    Cheers Pondy
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