05 Oct 10
1 edit
chart #11 is the one that indicated something we probably all didn't already know.
the average weekly overtime hours has risen very sharply over the past year or so (following a sharp drop during 2008-09).
it would make sense that as an economy moves out of a deep recession, employers would be very wary about committing to hiring additional workers in response to an increase in demand -- so instead, they would push their existing workers to the limit.
presumably, if chart #11's trend continues, there will be increasing pressure on businesses to hire large numbers of new people. And then all the other charts will look a lot better. (Except for the two charts regarding manufacturing jobs -- those jobs are probably going to continue their decline -- time for everyone to accept that we're becoming increasingly a service and information economy.)
05 Oct 10
Originally posted by MelanerpesThat means it's time for everyone to accept that wages will continue to be stagnant or falling in real terms. That means its time for everyone to accept that the economy will continue to be sluggish.
chart #11 is the one that indicated something we probably all didn't already know.
the average weekly overtime hours has risen very sharply over the past year or so (following a sharp drop during 2008-09).
it would make sense that as an economy moves out of a deep recession, employers would be very wary about committing to hiring additional workers ...[text shortened]... e for everyone to accept that we're becoming increasingly a service and information economy.)
I don't accept that and neither should the American people.
05 Oct 10
3 edits
Originally posted by no1marauderI just don't see manufacturing jobs doing anything but continuing to drop -- and those jobs that remain are likely to increasingly be non-union, de-skilled low wage stuff. (Seems like the only places where unions still have a lot of clout is in the public sector). It's not a matter of whether or not you or the American people like this scenario, we're still going to have to deal with it.
That means it's time for everyone to accept that wages will continue to be stagnant or falling in real terms. That means its time for everyone to accept that the economy will continue to be sluggish.
I don't accept that and neither should the American people.
So if this means an economy that is increasingly divided between the haves and the have-nots, then that's what we're going to be stuck with. Perhaps someone will eventually come up with a way to create information and service sector jobs that offer legitimate middle class wages for most Americans. Perhaps public sector employment will increase to fill this void.
Or maybe not -- in which case the middle class will rapidly disappear and a large majority of people will end up in the "have-not" category -- there will be political fallout with most people blaming immigrants, minorities, and other "undesirables" for everything, and there may well be some major violence, until most people finally become willing to address the real problem.
Or maybe not.
05 Oct 10
Originally posted by MelanerpesThe US has shed 1/3 of its manufacturing jobs in the last 12 years. This was not some inevitable force of nature, but a calculated decision by policy makers. We should "deal with it" by changing our present policies which have created this disastrous trend; if this means measures which the KNs of the world will cluck at as "protectionist", so be it.
I just don't see manufacturing jobs doing anything but continuing to drop -- and those jobs that remain are likely to be increasingly be non-union, de-skilled low wage stuff. (Seems like the only places where unions still have a lot of clout is in the public sector). It's not a matter of whether or not you or the American people like this scenario, we're ...[text shortened]... until most people finally become willing to address the real problem.
Or maybe not.
05 Oct 10
Originally posted by no1marauderaccording to chart #9, the number of manufacturing jobs remained more or less steady at around 18mill since around 1965 until 2000 before the recent drop - so it seems that an absolute "best-case scenario" would be to get that number back up to near 18mill again -- but with the population now around 310mill vs 190mill in 1965, manufacturing jobs would still be an ever-declining part of the American economy.
The US has shed 1/3 of its manufacturing jobs in the last 12 years. This was not some inevitable force of nature, but a calculated decision by policy makers. We should "deal with it" by changing our present policies which have created this disastrous trend; if this means measures which the KNs of the world will cluck at as "protectionist", so be it.
The troubling thing is that in previous recessions, the manufacturing jobs would quickly return to pre-recession levels once the economy recovered. But after the 1982 and 1991 recessions, manufacturing jobs only recovered about half the losses - and then after the 2001 recession, they didn't recover at all.
I think one of the big factors is that communication and transportation technology is making it easier to locate factories in places that were not efficient locations in the past, or to replace many of those jobs completely with machines - and the impact of the internet revolution that took place in the late 1990's is probably one of the big reasons for the especially ugly manufacturing picture since the 2001 recession.
Do we need to enact increased protectionism to slow the bleeding until the economy can adjust to the new realities? Perhaps. Maybe we can make sure we get in on the action in "green manufacturing" before China gets all the good jobs. But barring some major change in the long term trend since 1965, manufacturing is going to continue to strongly decline as a % of the jobs.
05 Oct 10
It doesn't take a genius to prove that the recession is far from over. I can look at my local newspaper, the parking lot at the Unemployment Office and Job Service buildings, and the people sitting across from the county court house on the Federal Building steps day after day. Thare ain't no jobs here. And the argument to "gop to where the jobs are" is BS.
06 Oct 10
Originally posted by PinkFloydhttp://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/11/03/eveningnews/main2151799.shtml
It doesn't take a genius to prove that the recession is far from over. I can look at my local newspaper, the parking lot at the Unemployment Office and Job Service buildings, and the people sitting across from the county court house on the Federal Building steps day after day. Thare ain't no jobs here. And the argument to "gop to where the jobs are" is BS.
GILLETTE, Wyoming, Nov. 3, 2006
Wyoming Jobs Beckon, But Housing Is Scarce
* Families Relocate To Get A Toehold In Land Of Opportunity
(CBS) When the Springers say they're closer than most American families, they're not exaggerating.
They moved from their home to a travel trailer, CBS News correspondent Cynthia Bowers reports. The trailer has been their home since April, when Kenneth, Joann, and their boys made an 1,300-mile trek from Bakersfield, California to seek their fortunes in the Cowboy State, Wyoming.
"I moved out here wanting to be in a house, you know, wanting to be in an apartment, I didn't care," Joann Springer says.
Like many families, they heard about the coal-powered gold rush happening here. With fewer than a half-million people scattered over 100,000 square miles, Wyoming has 6,000 open jobs, mainly high paying blue collar jobs in the red-hot mining industry.
More than a third of the coal used to generate electricity in this country comes from one Wyoming county, and that number could be higher if the mining companies had more manpower.
Much like the boomtowns of the Wild West, in places like Gillette, jobs are plentiful. It's housing that's scarce. And although recruiters warn it could be 12 to 18 months before they can accommodate the workforce they need, families desperate to gain a toehold in this land of opportunity aren't willing to wait.
"In California, they couldn't guarantee him a job week to week. If the job was there you do it. If it's not, you're laid off," Joann explains.
It was that same fear that drove Zeb Goodrich the 1,400 miles from Michigan to a place where welders like him can make six-figure salaries.
"I could still be in Michigan right now and we probably would just be staying afloat, but there's no sense in staying afloat if you can be moving forward," Zeb says.
....
06 Oct 10
Originally posted by MelanerpesIs it healthy to have a major recession every 10 years?
according to chart #9, the number of manufacturing jobs remained more or less steady at around 18mill since around 1965 until 2000 before the recent drop - so it seems that an absolute "best-case scenario" would be to get that number back up to near 18mill again -- but with the population now around 310mill vs 190mill in 1965, manufacturing jobs would sti ...[text shortened]... end since 1965, manufacturing is going to continue to strongly decline as a % of the jobs.
07 Oct 10
1 edit
Originally posted by no1marauderWell, welcome to Obamaville.
That means it's time for everyone to accept that wages will continue to be stagnant or falling in real terms. That means its time for everyone to accept that the economy will continue to be sluggish.
I don't accept that and neither should the American people.
btw, we're not accepting it, as you'll see in less than a month.
07 Oct 10
Originally posted by zeeblebot...a welder...making 6 figures?...you know that has to be part of the problem. not that welding isn't an important and difficult skill....but 6 figures?
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/11/03/eveningnews/main2151799.shtml
GILLETTE, Wyoming, Nov. 3, 2006
Wyoming Jobs Beckon, But Housing Is Scarce
* Families Relocate To Get A Toehold In Land Of Opportunity
(CBS) When the Springers say they're closer than most American families, they're not exaggerating.
They moved from their home to a tra ...[text shortened]... 's no sense in staying afloat if you can be moving forward," Zeb says.
....