17 Jun 21
@no1marauder said20 percent were people younger than 64, sounds about right. Of that 20 percent a vast majority are between 55 and 64.
(Shrug) About 20% of COVID deaths were of people under 64. The percentage increased in 2021 to almost 23%. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/mortality-overview.htm
Life expectancy in the US before COVID19 was 78.8 years. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2020/202012.htm
So your numbers agree with mine. Glad to see you admit my numbers are correct.
19 Jun 21
I just calculated the probablity of a person aged 5-17 of being hospitalized. Given that so many young people have such mild cases, this group's true number of cases is likely much greater than 10 times the tested cases.
But assuming that the true number of covid cases is 10 times tested...
Probablilty of a 5-17 year old being hospitalized is .0000106
This means that approximately 1 in 100k cases results in a hospitalization. You are saying that all 100 000 people should be vaccinated because 1 of them is likely to be hospitalized and live.
19 Jun 21
@eladar saidOn what basis do you claim "Of that 20 percent a vast majority are between 55 and 64"?
20 percent were people younger than 64, sounds about right. Of that 20 percent a vast majority are between 55 and 64.
So your numbers agree with mine. Glad to see you admit my numbers are correct.
19 Jun 21
@eladar saidChickenpox kills less than a 100 people a year in the US. Even before vaccination:
We are talking about a threat for all children.
What fraction of all kids who contract covid end up in the hospital? You do not know. You do not care. To you, as long as they exist at all, then all kids are in danger of being killed by covid.
Covid is no more dangerous than chickpox, as a matter of fact, it is less dangerous.
Once again, you do not answer the question. The question this time is what fraction of kids who contract covid end up in the hospital.
"In the prevaccine era, approximately 10,500 persons with varicella required hospitalization each year."
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/varicella.html
It's insane to claim "Covid is no more dangerous than chickpox, as a matter of fact, it is less dangerous."
@no1marauder saidThe risk of complications from varicella varies with age. Complications are infrequent among healthy children. They occur much more frequently in persons older than age 15 years and infants younger than age 1 year. In the prevaccine era, approximately 10,500 persons with varicella required hospitalization each year. Hospitalization rates were approximately 1 to 2 per 1,000 cases among healthy children and 14 per 1,000 cases among adults. The fatality rate for varicella was approximately 1 per 100,000 cases among children age 1 through 14 years, 6 per 100,000 cases among persons age 15 through 19 years, and 21 per 100,000 cases among adults
Chickenpox kills less than a 100 people a year in the US. Even before vaccination:
"In the prevaccine era, approximately 10,500 persons with varicella required hospitalization each year."
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/varicella.html
It's insane to claim "Covid is no more dangerous than chickpox, as a matter of fact, it is less dangerous."
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/varicella.html#:~:text=The%20fatality%20rate%20for%20varicella,in%20immunocompetent%20children%20and%20adults.
The fatalilty rate is much lower than 1 in 100k for children with covid.
19 Jun 21
@eladar saidYou're not a math teacher, are you?
I just calculated the probablity of a person aged 5-17 of being hospitalized. Given that so many young people have such mild cases, this group's true number of cases is likely much greater than 10 times the tested cases.
But assuming that the true number of covid cases is 10 times tested...
Probablilty of a 5-17 year old being hospitalized is .0000106
This means that ...[text shortened]... hat all 100 000 people should be vaccinated because 1 of them is likely to be hospitalized and live.
These figures are incomplete but:
"More than 5,300 children or teenagers in 22 states were hospitalized for COVID-19 between May and November with dramatically varying rates of growth between states, a new study shows."
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-01-12/more-than-5-300-pediatric-hospitalizations-for-covid-in-22-states-study-shows
5,300 x 100,000 = 530 million. Given that study was less than half the States and didn't cover the beginning of the pandemic or any date since last November, your math would suggest well over a billion people 5-17 in the US have had COVID.
That seems a bit high, doesn't it?
19 Jun 21
@no1marauder saidI am using CDC numbers. Maybe the CDC is incorrect.
You're not a math teacher, are you?
These figures are incomplete but:
"More than 5,300 children or teenagers in 22 states were hospitalized for COVID-19 between May and November with dramatically varying rates of growth between states, a new study shows."
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-01-12/more-than-5-300-pediatric-hospitalizations-for-co ...[text shortened]... gest well over a billion people 5-17 in the US have had COVID.
That seems a bit high, doesn't it?
19 Jun 21
@no1marauder saidBased on how dramatically death rates drops by age group as they get younger.
On what basis do you claim "Of that 20 percent a vast majority are between 55 and 64"?
19 Jun 21
@eladar saidThere are about 73 million children in the US. https://www.statista.com/statistics/457786/number-of-children-in-the-us-by-age/
The risk of complications from varicella varies with age. Complications are infrequent among healthy children. They occur much more frequently in persons older than age 15 years and infants younger than age 1 year. In the prevaccine era, approximately 10,500 persons with varicella required hospitalization each year. Hospitalization rates were approximately 1 to 2 per 1,000 cas ...[text shortened]... ildren%20and%20adults.
The fatalilty rate is much lower than 1 in 100k for children with covid.
322 have died of COVID19: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex
4 million have tested positive for COVID. https://services.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/
There's no reason to take seriously your "1 in 10" formula for confirmed cases v. actual cases. Perhaps that might have been valid in the early stages of the pandemic but testing has become far more widespread since.
In any case, the CDC doesn't recommend vaccination for those under 12, so we should be focusing on the 12-17 population only.
@eladar saidSo you're guessing.
Based on how dramatically death rates drops by age group as they get younger.
In any case I know your position has been "who cares if people over X age die" but as I've shown by mortality tables almost all of those people could have expected to live years, many of then decades but/for the pandemic.
19 Jun 21
@no1marauder
12-17 are in the 5 to 17 age group.
If a child has the mild form of covid, it is not likely the child will go to the doctor and be tested. Do you know what percentage of children aged 5 to 17 are tested for covid?
If my child had a runny nose, I would not take my child to the doctor. I believe most people would have my reaction.
@no1marauder saidhttps://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/
So you're guessing.
In any case I know your position has been "who cares if people over X age die" but as I've shown by mortality tables almost all of those people could have expected to live years, many of then decades but/for the pandemic.
50-64 total deaths 92 107
49 and below total deaths 27 328
My position is to give people the facts and let them decide for themselves if a vaccination is needed.
21 Jun 21
@no1marauder saidAre you on the "herd immunity" BS again?
So you're guessing.
In any case I know your position has been "who cares if people over X age die" but as I've shown by mortality tables almost all of those people could have expected to live years, many of then decades but/for the pandemic.
In any case I know your position has been "who cares if children are sacrificed to die from the vaccine to extend the lives of the elderly", but the elderly already have lived long lives. You cannot say that of children.
Your position is unethical and is guided by a partisan bias you refuse to let go to save the lives of children. You have no right to sacrifice children's lives to save the elderly who will not live long anyway. Furthermore, there is no good evidence that covid vaccines provide herd immunity. Your logic is based on an unproven assumption and the words of known liars.
21 Jun 21
@metal-brain saidI think I'll just ignore your ridiculous anti-vaxxer arguments from now on. Nothing you have claimed in this post is true and they have been debunked on this Forum many times.
Are you on the "herd immunity" BS again?
In any case I know your position has been "who cares if children are sacrificed to die from the vaccine to extend the lives of the elderly", but the elderly already have lived long lives. You cannot say that of children.
Your position is unethical and is guided by a partisan bias you refuse to let go to save the lives of childr ...[text shortened]... s provide herd immunity. Your logic is based on an unproven assumption and the words of known liars.
21 Jun 21
@eladar saidWho says that people can't "decide for themselves if a vaccination is needed"?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/
50-64 total deaths 92 107
49 and below total deaths 27 328
My position is to give people the facts and let them decide for themselves if a vaccination is needed.
They may have to accept certain consequences for doing so though.