Originally posted by Melanerpes
[b] In fact, there is NO way for him to prove that the insurance companies are lying simply because I think at times it perplexes him as to what this bohemouth entitlement policy will actually pan out to be.
I think this is the root of the matter. Our current healthcare system is a complex mess that would probably have stumped Einstein. And any eff is would also apply to those opposing reforms). But that's what we're all doing. Guessing.[/b]
Here is an interesting article
http://action.afa.net/Blogs/BlogPost.aspx?id=2147486771
It is an article on how both the right and left approach reform. Both sides see the need for reform, however, both approach it differently. Reform from the left approaches reform based upon the rationalistic approach to change. Beginning with the enlightenment and exemplified by the French Revolution, liberals believe that government and society, in all their complexity, can be completely managed through the power of ideas, using primarily the capability of the human mind, hence, any percieved problems can be solved by a completly reasoned, planned process. Here are the logical corollaries to the rationalistic approach to change:
1. Reform can be defined in a comprehensive plan, before any changes actually occur, even though the plan may only be a mete-narrative (a defining story) and not necessarily a detailed specification.
2. Reform can be conducted in a one-step fashion, or in a large phase connected process, even thorugh admittedly this process may be huge.
3. Reform should be planned and managed by a small, politically homogeneous group of elite experts.
So here are the dangers of this type of reform.
Unentended consequences. Government and human society are exceedingly complex systems (degree of coplexity is related to the number of seperate entities and the number and nature of interconnections). Discoveries (over the past several decades) in the area of chaos theory and fractel theory have demonstrated conclusively that even some very simple, deterministic equations can be evaluated to produce very unexpected and unpredictable results, given a specific set of initial conditions (paramaters). This, essentially mathematical notion, can be exampled as the so called "butterfly" effect in weather, discovered by Edward Lorentz.
Lorenz built a mathmatical model of the way air moves around in the atmosphere. As Lorenz studied weather patterns he began to realize that they did not always change as predicted. Minute variations in the initial values of variable in his 12 variable weather model would result in grossly divergent weather patterns. This sensitive dependence on initial conditions came to be known as the butterfly effect.
What this means, in pratical terms, is that efforts to completely and accurately compute (to know for certain) the future state, especially a distant future state, for a changing, very complex systems is not always humanly possible. The weather is one such, very complex system. Government and society provide another example. An example of a complex system that is computable with surprising accuracy, into the distant future and the distant past is the solar system. But not so the weather or governmental and social systems. (As a side note, I find it humerous that the weather is used as an example, especially in light of the controversy over the effects of our carbon footprint and global warming)
Belief in the rationalistic approach to change is the key connecting belief for all liberal intellectuals beginning with Jean Rousseau and extending through Barack Hussein Obama. All correctly identified, ideological intellectuals deeply believe that the world can, and should, be changed and managed with ideas, their ideas of course.
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Conversely, conservatives are always concerned with the known problem of unintended consequences. Conservatives believe that the human intellect alone is incapable of determining, in advance, the results of extensive reform to very complex human systems such as governmnet and society. So, since conservatives do understand the absolute necessity for change, what is an accurate label for the conservative veiw toward change? We can label it, the historical approach to change. This approach can be seen as a test-and-verify (empirical) approach that relies on the lessons offerred by history as a guide to reforms. Empiricism (related to the empirical approach) is a philisophical theory that asserts that knowledge arises primarily from experience. Conservatives believe strongly in the dictum from the philosopher, George Santayana. "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" Logical corollaries to the historical approach for change are as the following.
1. Reform should avoid radical change (broad, sweeping, comprehensive, rapid change) due to the known and always present danger of unintended comsequences.
2. Reform should be conducted in relatively small steps (compared with the size of what is being changed) over a period of time so that unintended consequences can be minimized, and can be corrected if detrimental.
3. Reform should be planned and managed by a large, politically diverse group of democratically selected citizens.
What are the primary dangers of this conservative view of reform?
Unintended consequences. Whereas liberals run the risk of getting ahead of the necessary change curve with reform, conservatives run the risk of of lagging behind the necessary change curve with reforms. Of course, being a conservative, I am biased, and I think that of the two options, getting ahead is much more dangerous than lagging begind. Liberals would of course, disagree.