21 Mar '11 09:41>
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Originally posted by KazetNagorraThey are - slightly! - larger. AFAIK the effect is smaller than that of spring and neap tides, but if someone has better figures on that I'm willing to stand corrected.
What is the effect of the moon's relative proximity to Earth on tides?
Some studies have reported a weak correlation between lunar activity and shallow, very low intensity earthquakes. However, no evidence has been found of any correlation with major earthquakes.[10][11][12] The 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami is the only earthquake of 8.0 magnitude or greater to have occurred within 2 weeks of the 14 extreme supermoons from 1900 to the present date,[13][14][15] suggesting that the claim of a supermoon effect on the incidence of large-scale earthquakes is unjustified.
Originally posted by divegeesterYou wouldn't be asking the question if the earthquake hadn't caused a lot of damage and caused a tsunami.
What has when a question is asked got to do with "specialness"? (whatever that means).
Originally posted by Shallow BlueHere's the earthquake data from 1990 onwards.
They are - slightly! - larger. AFAIK the effect is smaller than that of spring and neap tides, but if someone has better figures on that I'm willing to stand corrected.
In any case, what I'd like to know is whether there was a massive earthquake in the same week as this "super moon" last time it occurred, 18 years ago. And one the time previous to th ...[text shortened]... thing - a scientific hypothesis needs a pattern, if it is to be taken seriously.
Richard
The 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami is the only earthquake of 8.0 magnitude or greater to have occurred within 2 weeks of the 14 extreme supermoons from 1900 to the present date.
Originally posted by ElleEffSeeeTo put these in perspective, a new moon or full moon exists every 14 days or so. So every day of the month is no greater than 7 days away from one of them. (Do I have that right?)
Lisbon tsunami, 1 Nov 1755: 3 days before perigee and new moon
Osaka tsunami, 23 Dec 1854: 2 days after perigee, 4 days after new moon
Arica tsunami, 13 Aug 1868: 4 days before perigee, 5 days before new moon
Tokyo earthquake, 18 April 1889: Same day as perigee, 2 days after full moon
Aleutian Islands tsunami, 1 April 1946: 2 days before perigee, 1 b ...[text shortened]... new moon
Banda Aceh tsunami, 24 Dec 2004: 3 days before apogee, 2 days before full moon
Originally posted by twhiteheadYep the lunar month is 29.5 days so new or full moon every 14.75 days. Remember though that we're not just interested in sun-moon-earth syzygy but also that the moon is at perigee, so the joint distribution of the time of lunar month and the time of perigee-apogee period (27.5 days) should be considered.
To put these in perspective, a new moon or full moon exists every 14 days or so. So every day of the month is no greater than 7 days away from one of them. (Do I have that right?)
So the numbers given (3, 4, 5, 2, 1, 8, 3, 3, 2) seem to be a fairly normal random distribution over the 7 possible numbers. (I don't know how that 8 got in there 🙂 )
Though ...[text shortened]... interesting that there are no zeros, it is not really surprising considering the small sample.
Originally posted by ElleEffSeeeI notice that nearly every event in your list includes a tsunami. Why is that? Tsunamis are not always caused by big quakes (in fact they are quite rare as far as I know).
So we basically want to see if times of perigee-syzygy (great word 🙂) line up with historical big quakes.