White to move.

I won't say how this position was arrived at because this is one of my top-secret variations. 😀 However, I'm really interested in your analysis. How would you evaluate this position for Black?

I would say white can trade down to a reasonable endgame where he maintains a decent chance of winning and no chance of losing (barring gross errors)

1. Nxc6 bxc
[ 1. .. Bxc3+? 2. bxc bxc 3. Qd4! and blacks king looks very uncomfortable ]
2. Nxd5 Qxd5
[ 2. .. cxd? Bb5+ .. uh oh]
[ 2. .. Qa5+?? 3. Nc3 Bxc3+ 4. bxc Qxc3+ 5. Bd2 .. it's all over]
[ 2. .. Bxb2?? 3. Bd4 .. it's all over]
3. either Qxd5 or O-O look fine for white, either way he is playing against the isolated pawns.

An interesting variation is just simply 1. Nxc6 bxc 6. Nxd5 cxd5 Bb5+, forcing ..Kf8, since ..Bd7 loses the d-pawn.