Originally posted by Kunsoo
This article makes the case that he can (and will).
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/bernie-sanders-will-become-president_b_8780730.html
Most pundits and those of us with extensive experience watching these races would say otherwise. In fact most pundits, to whom this writer is responding, would say she has it in the bag.
I would say to the ...[text shortened]... ot my first choice. Nor my second. But she will probably be there come the January after next.
I've donated to the Bernie Sanders campaign several times now. Maybe up to $200, plus some bumper stickers and so on.
I hope he will win, of course. There is a conceivable path, though certainly the odds are against him. It's been said by others such as Nate Silver, I believe: the national polls don't mean anything right now. Just the early primary/caucus state polls matter, and even they aren't very predictive until you get into January.
Iowa is a caucus state, which plays to the strengths of the Bernie campaign's young, enthusiastic, energetic activist base. It is this base that makes Bernie's candidacy quite comparable to Obama's 2008 campaign. Caucus states are often hard to gauge with polls, but right now Bernie is within striking distance of winning Iowa. Winning narrowly in Iowa would be all it takes to create a national sensation that would buoy Bernie's numbers in other states. The big difference between Bernie and Obama in 2008, I think, is that while Obama won Iowa and then went on to lose New Hampshire, Bernie would likely also win New Hampshire should he win in Iowa. This is simply because New Hampshire is Bernie's backyard and he's already polling strongly there. Should that happen, the situation in states such as South Carolina, Nevada, and so on could change radically.
Media and social networks I think are having the effect of magnifying the significance of early primaries and caucuses -- and in fact are magnifying the impact of every little thing that happens in the nominating process of both political parties. Things "go viral" like they never used to a decade ago, so that predicting what happens in politics gets more and more like a study in chaos theory. So, if Bernie wins Iowa AND New Hampshire, well, I think a "viral" phenomenon could conceivably sweep Hillary off the map, or at least result in Bernie achieving lasting parity in the polls with her. In such a scenario, it may be that Hillary will only win on account of having more so-called superdelegates, which would be grievously unfortunate.
If Bernie loses, I still think he'll have done a lot of good. He helps to keep Hillary honest and energize the Democratic base. He's bringing the serious issues to the forefront, and he can help Hillary to win against whichever frothing fascist or theocrat the other-party-which-shall-remain-nameless nominates. I don't think Bernie should become Hillary's running mate should Hillary win the nomination, as he'd be more useful in the Senate.
Can Bernie Sanders defeant Hillary Clinton?
15 Dec '15 00:00
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