Originally posted by twhitehead
No, you quite clearly do not. And this is mathematics, and in mathematics we can do indisputable proofs.
So lets go through your organisms evolution step by step. We start with the organism having one component and we want to find the probability of it gaining 200 components. Lets initially assume we are talking about a specific 200 mutations in a specif ...[text shortened]... r 200 such mutations the probability is also essentially 100%.
So, what do you disagree with?
Look, you missed the point. You aren't even arguing mathematics. But a system. Yes,
IF you were able to have one successful mutation or an organism each generation your post would be true.
I'll quote this for reference.
"But let us give the evolutionist the benefit of every consideration. Assume that, at each mutational step, there is equally as much chance for it to be good as bad. Thus, the probability for the success of each mutation is assumed to be one out of two, or one-half. Elementary statistical theory shows that the probability of 200 successive mutations being successful is then (½ ) 200, or one chance out of 1060. The number 1060, if written out, would be "one" followed by sixty "zeros." In other words, the chance that a 200-component organism could be formed by mutation and natural selection is less than one cha...chance out of a trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion! Lest anyone think that a 200-part system is unreasonably complex, it should be noted that even a one-celled plant or animal may have millions of molecular "parts."
You are talking about the population, i.e. the individual organisms and the evolutionary concept of survival of fittest, good genes pass on etc. I'm talking about the likely hood on the micro scale of mutations within individual organism taking place. We aren't even mathematically talking about the same thing. From your post, I'm talking about the 1 individual who gets a good mutation-what is that likelyhood. My math is sound-it is rudimentary. Your process is sound too, but it assume that my process first successfully occurred successively and successfully.
You seem to think the 200 components spoke of a population pool. No, it spoke of the individual mechanism within the cell itself.