Originally posted by googlefudge
Close, but not quite. 🙂
My point was that you could potentially know things about your thoughts [belief,
knowledge claims etc] absolutely. But still not know anything about reality with
absolute certainty. As the latter requires a solution to the hard solipsism problem.
[I am not even certain that logical impossibilities are impossible]
So yo ...[text shortened]... stion in the OP " Can I justify my agnostic stance on the basis
of epistemic logic?" to be no.
I can accept that all knowledge about reality (as opposed to of our beliefs about reality) is probabilistic. But then is there some non-subjective, non-arbitrary threshold for P(x) < 1 where one can claim “knowledge” (other than p(x) itself)? 0.90? 0.95? 0.99? Certainly I can be “more sure” with the increased probability (confidence level).
The common definition of knowledge in epistemology is “justified true belief”—that is, a belief that is justified (not just a guess), and happens to be true.
It seems to me that you are redefining knowledge, but unless there is some objective “threshold probability” that would be generally recognized and accepted (even if such a threshold itself might vary, say, across disciplines), then to say that “I know” is just to say that I have a subjective “sureness”. That might be true (the Pyrrhonian Skeptics thought so, and argued pretty cogently).
But, either way, you seem to arguing for a redefinition of “knowledge” to mean something like either:
(1) “a justified belief that is true with a probability of [some P < 1]”, or
(2) “a justified belief that is believed to be true with [some P < 1]”.
As I say, I think, on analysis, the first really reduces to “a justified belief that has a [some P <1] of being true”.
[It occurred to me after my first post, that the “justified belief” [JB] could itself be a probabilistic statement, itself held to be true with [some P< 1].]
In any event, the so-called “Black Swan” problem will always remain (as [some P(~x) > 0]). I don’t see “agnosticism” as just being a statement that P(x) = .50. So, to belabor the point, either (a) there is some objective, non-arbitrary “probability threshold” beyond which agnosticism is an invalid position; or (b) every statement (about reality, as you say) can be said to be “
agnostic to [some P > 0]" (which is just the flip-side of saying “gnostic to [some P <1 ]” ). One can argue about “reasonableness”—but that is subject to all the foregoing, with respect to reasonableness instead of knowledge.
At some point, I am reminded of the following quite by W (in
On Certainty):
“I am sitting with a philosopher in the garden; he says again and again 'I know that that’s a tree', pointing to a tree that is near us. Someone else arrives and hears this, and I tell him: 'This fellow isn’t insane. We are only doing philosophy.”
(Note: I’m an untrained philosophical “hack”, who just enjoys this stuff.)
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I am still thinking about your approach here in terms of W’s about the world being the world “of facts, not things”—where by “fact” is meant a kind of “that” statement. For example, if I say, “There is a chair” (pointing), I am essentially saying “
that a chair is [/i]there[/i]”. That is, we unable to observe “bare things” absent the relationships (in this example, spatial)—what I recall W as saying “how they hang together” (and I am going to have to revisit this).
Anyway, that’s where this conversation is stimulating my own inquiry.