Devise A Ranking - For Mitigation Effectiveness
04 Apr '20 00:042 editsLooking to have a rational discussion on devising a simple/effective ranking for how well certain countries are doing. I keep hearing certain people shouting how terrible the USA is responding to this.
Here is what I propose as a simple scoring system. Improvements are welcome.
all data comes from
https://www.worldometers.info
I first sorted the data by Total Deaths/Million
I got the top 33 Countries based on that rate.
I looked at all the countries graphs ( for which data was available) and used first reported case.
From there I further filtered by countries which had a first reported case between Feb - 15th and Feb -19th.
Now the countries in question should be on similar timelines.
Next, I added population density data to the table.
Next I propose a simple ranking system determined by the Product
Score = Total Deaths/Million * 1/Population Density
With a large population density we would inherently expect more infections, so it should be a score decreasing factor. And A high Total Deaths per million should be a score increasing factor. So when I take the product, and sort smallest ( Best Response ) to Largest ( Worst Response ) I get the following ranking by country.
Country...……Tot Deaths/10^6.....Pop Density....Score
Germany ..............15..............................240.........…….0.063
UK .........…...........53...………………...…..281...……….0.189
Belgium ..............99...………………...…..383..............0.258
USA ............……......21.........……............….36...………..0.583
Iran ........................39...…………….........….52......….....0.750
France...............…..100............…..............119..............0.840
Italy ..................…...243........................…..206.........….1.180
Sweden...............….35...……………….........25...............1.400
Spain............…...….240.........…......…...…...94......…...…2.553
I'm doing this because I think it is paramount to be as quantitative as possible during the highly charged times, as opposed to shouting people down with mere opinion.
So as I said, I welcome thoughtful critiques, improvements, ect...
Here is what I propose as a simple scoring system. Improvements are welcome.
all data comes from
https://www.worldometers.info
I first sorted the data by Total Deaths/Million
I got the top 33 Countries based on that rate.
I looked at all the countries graphs ( for which data was available) and used first reported case.
From there I further filtered by countries which had a first reported case between Feb - 15th and Feb -19th.
Now the countries in question should be on similar timelines.
Next, I added population density data to the table.
Next I propose a simple ranking system determined by the Product
Score = Total Deaths/Million * 1/Population Density
With a large population density we would inherently expect more infections, so it should be a score decreasing factor. And A high Total Deaths per million should be a score increasing factor. So when I take the product, and sort smallest ( Best Response ) to Largest ( Worst Response ) I get the following ranking by country.
Country...……Tot Deaths/10^6.....Pop Density....Score
Germany ..............15..............................240.........…….0.063
UK .........…...........53...………………...…..281...……….0.189
Belgium ..............99...………………...…..383..............0.258
USA ............……......21.........……............….36...………..0.583
Iran ........................39...…………….........….52......….....0.750
France...............…..100............…..............119..............0.840
Italy ..................…...243........................…..206.........….1.180
Sweden...............….35...……………….........25...............1.400
Spain............…...….240.........…......…...…...94......…...…2.553
I'm doing this because I think it is paramount to be as quantitative as possible during the highly charged times, as opposed to shouting people down with mere opinion.
So as I said, I welcome thoughtful critiques, improvements, ect...