1. Joined
    12 Jul '08
    Moves
    13814
    21 Mar '20 02:04
    OK exponential growth people, what kind of growth should we be seeing in the number of deaths caused by corona virus?

    The kind of exponential growth I usually think of is something like 2 to the x power resulting in the pattern...

    1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024...

    For the past 3 days the US has had a number of new deaths about 50, which does not seem to be exponential growth.
  2. Standard memberDeepThought
    Losing the Thread
    Quarantined World
    Joined
    27 Oct '04
    Moves
    87415
    21 Mar '20 09:011 edit
    @eladar said
    OK exponential growth people, what kind of growth should we be seeing in the number of deaths caused by corona virus?

    The kind of exponential growth I usually think of is something like 2 to the x power resulting in the pattern...

    1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024...

    For the past 3 days the US has had a number of new deaths about 50, which does not seem to be exponential growth.
    The number of new infections is growing exponentially, but the number of deaths, given a mean time from infection to death of 18 days (figure from memory) mirrors new cases from further back in the curve. It was like that with UK cases a week ago.

    Edit: I was on my phone earlier, in the meantime I had a look at the worldometers site and there is a clearly exponential increase in both cases and deaths in the US. You just have to look at the graph. You can check this by clicking on the log scale button and the graph becomes linear, with no downward curve.
  3. Joined
    07 Dec '05
    Moves
    22048
    21 Mar '20 12:19
    @eladar said
    OK exponential growth people, what kind of growth should we be seeing in the number of deaths caused by corona virus?

    The kind of exponential growth I usually think of is something like 2 to the x power resulting in the pattern...

    1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024...

    For the past 3 days the US has had a number of new deaths about 50, which does not seem to be exponential growth.
    It is impossible to calculate because you don't know how many C19 infection there are and you may never know. Many death attributed to the flu may have been from C19 infections. Since no tests existed it may have been here in the US longer than people think. I had a really bad cold last year right before fall. I was miserable. Maybe it was C19. How could you rule that out?

    https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/flu-related-deaths-in-us-may-be-caused-by-covid-19/ar-BB118rPD
  4. Subscribersonhouse
    Fast and Curious
    slatington, pa, usa
    Joined
    28 Dec '04
    Moves
    53223
    21 Mar '20 13:111 edit
    @Metal-Brain
    We could rule that out because C19 showed up in 2020 not in 19 in the US anyway.
  5. Joined
    12 Jul '08
    Moves
    13814
    21 Mar '20 14:564 edits
    @deepthought said
    The number of new infections is growing exponentially, but the number of deaths, given a mean time from infection to death of 18 days (figure from memory) mirrors new cases from further back in the curve. It was like that with UK cases a week ago.

    Edit: I was on my phone earlier, in the meantime I had a look at the worldometers site and there is a clearly exponential ...[text shortened]... check this by clicking on the log scale button and the graph becomes linear, with no downward curve.
    Infections are difficult to know because we are not testing everyone. They only test sick people.

    Deaths are a more accurate count. Deaths are what we should be concerned with.

    By the way, you do known there are more types of curves than just exponential.

    Show me your exponential numbers. Do not simply claim to be the source of true opinion.

    Try US numbers which have had about 50 deaths the last 3 days.
  6. SubscriberPonderable
    chemist
    Linkenheim
    Joined
    22 Apr '05
    Moves
    653699
    21 Mar '20 16:032 edits
    @eladar said
    Infections are difficult to know because we are not testing everyone. They only test sick people.

    Deaths are a more accurate count. Deaths are what we should be concerned with.

    By the way, you do known there are more types of curves than just exponential.

    Show me your exponential numbers. Do not simply claim to be the source of true opinion.

    Try US numbers which have had about 50 deaths the last 3 days.
    Taking the data from
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    which report 256 dead as of yesterday (and who give sources) and their daily number starting with one dead at 29th of February I can model the curve death over day using the exponential curve
    1.61*exp(0.24*d) with a r-value of 0.97 which is reasonable.
    If I calculate to day 42 (which is three weeks in the future) I obtain 38416.
    So lets wait and see?

    Oh and the CDC (www.cdc.gov) gives a number of 202 confirmed dead as of today. But since I can't get their daily data it is difficult to model the curve.

    What is your source for the 50?

    Edit: Worldometers.info just changed to 276 death today it should be around 316 if the curve was correct.
  7. Joined
    12 Jul '08
    Moves
    13814
    21 Mar '20 16:161 edit
    @ponderable said
    Taking the data from
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    which report 256 dead as of yesterday (and who give sources) and their daily number starting with one dead at 29th of February I can model the curve death over day using the exponential curve
    1.61*exp(0.24*d) with a r-value of 0.97 which is reasonable.
    If I calculate to day 42 (which is three we ...[text shortened]... Worldometers.info just changed to 276 death today it should be around 316 if the curve was correct.
    I am tracking US deaths. I subtract yesterday's total death from today's. I take my numbers at about 8 pm central time.
  8. SubscriberPonderable
    chemist
    Linkenheim
    Joined
    22 Apr '05
    Moves
    653699
    21 Mar '20 16:22
    @eladar said
    I am tracking US deaths. I subtract yesterday's total death from todays's. I take my numbers at about 8 pm central time.
    That doesn't say where your data come from. If we use the worldometers site we have 147 death in the last three accounted days. (Today excluded, they give 25 as of now)
  9. Joined
    12 Jul '08
    Moves
    13814
    21 Mar '20 16:271 edit
    @ponderable said
    That doesn't say where your data come from. If we use the worldometers site we have 147 death in the last three accounted days. (Today excluded, they give 25 as of now)
    I said about 50 deaths a day for the past 3 days. Each day had 50 new deaths.
  10. SubscriberPonderable
    chemist
    Linkenheim
    Joined
    22 Apr '05
    Moves
    653699
    21 Mar '20 16:301 edit
    @eladar said
    I said about 50 deaths a day for the past 3 days. Each day had 50 new deaths.
    Thank you for the clarification.
  11. Joined
    12 Jul '08
    Moves
    13814
    21 Mar '20 16:36
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    If the growth is exponential then the slope should be changing relatively quickly. The number of deaths that day is the estimated slope for that day.
  12. R
    Standard memberRemoved
    Joined
    10 Dec '06
    Moves
    8528
    21 Mar '20 16:406 edits
    @ponderable said
    Taking the data from
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    which report 256 dead as of yesterday (and who give sources) and their daily number starting with one dead at 29th of February I can model the curve death over day using the exponential curve
    1.61*exp(0.24*d) with a r-value of 0.97 which is reasonable.
    If I calculate to day 42 (which is three we ...[text shortened]... Worldometers.info just changed to 276 death today it should be around 316 if the curve was correct.
    The curve is not purely exponential, its logistical. I think you are going to greatly overestimate.

    YouTube : COVID19 - Exponential Growth ...
  13. R
    Standard memberRemoved
    Joined
    10 Dec '06
    Moves
    8528
    21 Mar '20 16:43
    @eladar said
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    If the growth is exponential then the slope should be changing relatively quickly. The number of deaths that day is the estimated slope for that day.
    Please watch this explanation of exponential growth:

    YouTube : COVID19 - Exponential Growth ...
  14. Joined
    12 Jul '08
    Moves
    13814
    21 Mar '20 16:54
    @joe-shmo said
    Please watch this explanation of exponential growth:

    [youtube COVID19 - Exponential Growth Explained]Kas0tIxDvrg[/youtube]
    The total death curve will be logistical. Only so many people can die.

    I never believed it would be exponential. Others claim that the growth is exponential, so this thread.
  15. R
    Standard memberRemoved
    Joined
    10 Dec '06
    Moves
    8528
    21 Mar '20 17:00
    @eladar said
    The total death curve will be logistical. Only so many people can die.

    I never believed it would be exponential. Others claim that the growth is exponential, so this thread.
    Oh, I see. Did you like the video?
Back to Top

Cookies help us deliver our Services. By using our Services or clicking I agree, you agree to our use of cookies. Learn More.I Agree